Cognitive Bias and Workers’ Compensation
In a recent World Economic Forum Article, Jono Hey at Sketchplantations discusses the concept of Cognitive Biases which as Ms. Hey notes, “lead us to generate false conclusions which can in turn have negative consequences. Cognitive Bias is a thought process that allows us to process information through a filter of personal experiences and preferences.
Confirmation Bias is one example of a Cognitive Bias that affects the way we engage with information and is defined as a “tendency to seek out or interpret evidence in a way that supports our own beliefs and ignore information that contradicts our opinion.”
Since Workers’ Compensation causation discussions frequently depend on the medical literature, it is important to note a recent article in the Wall Street Journal (5/15/2024) entitled, “Counterfeit Studies are Infecting Scientific Journals” which notes that “false studies have flooded the publishers of top scientific journals leading to thousands of retractions… the source of the false science are “papermills” which are businesses or individuals that for a price list a scientist as an author of a wholly or partially fabricated paper.”
If we depend on a scientific study to confirm an opinion and the scientific study is false, we are feeding into Confirmation Bias that can lead to ill-informed choices.
The AMA Guides to the Evaluation of Disease and Injury Causation, 2nd Edition, points out that utilizing the Bradford-Hill Criteria for Causation Assessment, outlines the minimal conditions needed to establish a scientifically valid causal connection between sickness, injury and conditions at work. …While it is quite easy to claim that Agent A (e.g., smoking) causes disease B (e.g., lung cancer), it is quite another matter to establish a meaningful and statistical valid connection between the two phenomena.
The original article “The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?” is available on the internet at http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/hill.
